Lightning/gusty winds (speed reaching 40-50 kmph) very likely at isolated places over Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, East Madhya Pradesh, Odisha.
The effect of western disturbance is being seen across the country. Now people will get relief from the ongoing heatwave in North India. From April 20 to April 22, minor relief can be seen in many states of North India. However, according to IMD Alert, the weather will change in the capital Delhi today. A rain alert has been expressed in the surrounding states of Assam, Meghalaya including the capital Delhi. Along with this, the possibility of rain has been expressed in South India and West India.
According to the IMD Alert, the minimum temperature in the capital Delhi today is expected to be 24 degrees while the maximum temperature is expected to be up to 40 degrees Celsius. However, the sky will remain cloudy. Light rain is likely. The same heavy rain alert has been issued in 19 states across the country. At the same time, heatwave has been feared in only six states. Change in weather will be seen in many areas of Bihar including Jharkhand . Jharkhand has seen a decrease of 3 degrees in the minimum temperature. In fact, the minimum temperature was recorded at 24 degrees Celsius and the maximum temperature was 34 degrees Celsius. The weather will remain clear in the capital Patna . There will be light clouds in the sky. Life will be normal due to cool breeze blowing.
However , a heat wave alert has also been issued in some areas of Bihar, Jharkhand and Uttar Pradesh . At the same time, an increase of two to three percent can be seen in the minimum temperature in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Ahmedabad . The minimum temperature in Madhya Pradesh is expected to be 23 degree Celsius while the maximum temperature is expected to be 41 degree Celsius. The minimum temperature in Dehradun is expected to be 21 degree Celsius.
There is a possibility of rain tomorrow in Jaipur, Rajasthan . In fact, the minimum temperature in Jaipur is 30 degrees, while the maximum temperature is 42 degrees Celsius, there is a possibility of drizzle in many areas of Rajasthan. Along with this, the minimum temperature in Mumbai is likely to be 27 degrees while the maximum temperature is likely to be 37 degrees Celsius.
Lightning/gusty winds (speed reaching 40-50 kmph) very likely at isolated places over Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, East Madhya Pradesh, Odisha. With lightning/gut winds (speed reaching 30-40 kmph) at isolated places over West Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, Gujarat State, Telangana, Assam-Meghalaya & Lightning at isolated places There are chances of falling.
Drizzle can be seen over Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan and Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh, Konkan and Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Bihar and Kerala-Mahe and thundershowers at isolated places over West Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh Lightning/dust storm likely.
In the coming days till April 25, there is a possibility of heavy rain in different states of the country. The weather will remain pleasant due to rain in the capital Delhi, Haryana, Punjab. There is also a possibility of dust storm at different places of Uttar Pradesh . While talking about the hilly states, the weather will remain pleasant in Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand , the sky will remain cloudy with light drizzle.
Rains will continue over Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu southern states. There is a possibility of rain in these states till April 27. Talking about the northeastern states, the drizzle will continue till April 25 in other states including Assam, Meghalaya, Manipur, Nagaland . Strong winds and thunderstorms accompanied by heavy rain have also been predicted in many areas.
Thunderstorm accompanied with lightning/ gusty winds (speed reaching 40-50 kmph) at isolated places over Assam Meghalaya from 23 to 25 April 2022; With lightning/strong winds (speed reaching 30-40 kmph) at isolated places over Vidarbha, Telangana and with lightning at isolated places Uttarakhand, Chhattisgarh, Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada and Kerala- There is a possibility of rain at isolated places over Mahe and heavy rain at isolated places over Assam-Meghalaya.
Monsoon forecast
The India Meteorological Department has predicted a normal monsoon this year, with rainfall estimated at 99% of the Long Period Average (LPA). Past data shows that IMD’s monsoon predictions often do not exceed the mark. However at the same time its long-range forecasting skills are improving.
The average deviation of forecasts from actual rainfall during 2011-2020 was 7.1 percentage points. which exceeded the error margin of the forecasts. This was an improvement over the previous decade (2001–2010), when the forecast averaged 8.6 percentage points deviation from the actual. During that decade, monsoon rainfall was within a 5 percentage-point error margin of forecasts over the three years.
However, three-four accurate forecasts in the decade 2001-2010 were offset by some spectacular failures. The IMD’s forecasts were off the mark of 10 percentage points or more over four years. These included the years 2002 and 2009, when forecasts were 20 and 19 percentage points lower, respectively, and 2004 when forecasts were lower by 13 percentage points. This led to a major change in forecasting methodology in 2007.
