Morgan Stanley has indicated in a report that the global economy will soon reach pre-Kovid levels. However, he also said that economic recovery will also depend on several important points.
new Delhi. Morgan Stanley has said in a report that the global economy is undergoing a new cycle of expansion and by the fourth quarter it will reach the level before the Corona period. Chetan Ahaya, an economist woman from Modern Stanley, said, ‘We have more faith in the V-shaped economic recovery. We are saying this because the growth data in recent times are showing something similar. Necessary decisions have been taken on the policy front.
Predicting a sharp slowdown, he said that the second quarter on a year-on-year basis, the global economy will remain at the level of 8.6 per cent and then in the first quarter of 2021 it will reach 3 per cent. Stanley’s report said,
1.This situation deteriorated due to imbalance is not such that it will last long.
2. The pressure to get rid of debt by selling property will be at a moderate level.
3. Policy support has been necessary and sufficient in many ways. This will help boost the economy and provide recovery.
Corona and will depend on vaccine benefits of government decisions
that stated in the report stage of the steps being taken by the government will still continue . Finance ministries and central banks around the world are pouring enough money into their economies. The effect of their efforts depends on the condition of corona virus infection in the coming days and how soon the vaccine is received.
Chetan wrote in this report, ‘We are assuming that the second wave of corona virus will be around the time of autumn i.e. September to November. But it will be manageable. Lightweight lockdown may also occur at some places. He also mentioned during this time that the vaccine will be available by the summer of 2021.
However, he also said that if we look at the situation from another scenario, it may also happen that the epidemic will take a more dangerous form and a situation of strict lockdown will arise. If this happens, there will be a big drop in the economy.
The uncertainty remains
notable that this estimate of Morgan Stanley is in contrast to other institutions and agencies including the International Monetary Fund. Last week itself, he had said that the global economy is recovering very sluggishly than anticipated and there is great uncertainty about it.
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In recent days, the rising corona virus case in Beijing has raised fears that the epidemic in China may once again take a frightening form. China is the second largest economy in the world and the recovery from growing cases may further slow down.
Chinese news agency Xinhua, in a recent report, quoted government officials as saying that there is a possibility of corona virus cases coming up on a large scale in Beijing.
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