The BJP could be on its way out in Jharkhand, according to exit polls released on Friday.
Of the two polls, the one done by India Today-Axis predicted a likely majority for the JMM-led alliance that includes Congress and RJD, while the one by ABP News-CVoter suggested the opposition alliance could be slightly ahead in a hung assembly.
If the polls come true, it would mean a reversal for BJP in another state in which it did very well in the Lok Sabha polls in May, winning 11 of the 14 seats and helping its then ally AJSU win another. The party has seen a series of under-par performances in state elections starting with the Gujarat polls in December 2017, though it has also won some in this period.
The India Today poll predicted that the JMM-led alliance would win between 38 and 50 seats in the 81-member assembly while BJP would have to be content with anything between 22 and 32. The CVoter poll projected a much closer fight with the opposition alliance winning 31 to 39 seats and BJP 28 to 36 seats.
In the hung assembly scenario, BJP, which would then finish as the single largest party, could look for support from AJSU, which has been a partner for the entire tenure of the current government but parted ways on the eve of the polls. Whether that will be enough is another matter.
JVM and at least some of the “others”, a category that includes CPI(ML), are more likely to lean towards the JMM-Congress-RJD alliance. How the numbers work out in this scenario would then boil down to the exact number of seats each of the smaller parties is able to win.
