Being a border state, the Pulwama terror attack and the Balakot airstrikes are likely to play on voters’ mind
All 13 Lok Sabha constituencies in Punjab are set to vote in the final phase of the general elections on May 19.
Historically, the state has swung between the Indian National Congress and the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD). The SAD is a major ally and a senior partner of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the state. SAD and BJP will be contesting 10 and three seats, respectively.
Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which is in power in Delhi, is contesting alone.
Six parties — Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Communist Party of India (CPI), Punjab Ekta Party, Lok Insaaf Party, Punjab Front and Revolutionary Marxist Party of India — have come together to form the Punjab Democratic Alliance (PDA). The alliance is contesting on all 13 seats.
2014 Lok Sabha polls
In 2014, SAD and the BJP won six out of the 13 seats in the state. SAD won four of those six.
While the Congress managed to perform better in Punjab than many of the other states in north India, it managed to win only three. This included the Amritsar Lok Sabha constituency where Captain Amarinder Singh defeated senior BJP leader Arun Jaitley.
AAP won the remaining four seats in the state.
In terms of vote share, SAD and BJP picked up 26.4 percent and 8.8 percent votes respectively. Contesting in all 13 seats each, Congress and AAP secured vote shares of 33.2 percent and 24.5 percent, respectively.
After the demise of BJP’s Gurdaspur Member of Parliament (MP) Vinod Khanna in 2017, the seat was clinched by Congress’ Sunil Jakhar in the bypoll.
Since 2014
Less than three years after the 2014 Lok Sabha election, Amarinder Singh-led Congress won 77 out of the 117 seats in the Punjab Legislative Assembly. AAP finished second with 20 seats, while SAD and BJP bagged 15 and three seats respectively.
Congress’ vote share was 38.8 percent followed by SAD’s 25.4 percent. AAP and BJP had a vote share of 23.9 percent and 5.4 percent, respectively.
Political observers suggest that Congress’ win was a result of the deep anti-incumbency against the two-term SAD government in the state.
The anti-incumbency also helped AAP gain ground in the state. However, the Arvind Kejriwal-led party has since shrunk, experts suggest. AAP has also seen defection of some of its MLAs.
The discord between the MLAs in Punjab and the central leadership was out in the open when Kejriwal apologised to SAD leader Bikram Singh Majithia to settle a drug charge-related defamation case.
In around two years since the state polls, AAP has fallen to having a marginal presence in most parts of the state, observers suggest. Many also believe that the party’s only chance in the general election is the Sangrur Lok Sabha seat where its sitting MP Bhagwant Mann is contesting from. Mann is the face of the AAP in Punjab.
Also read: Opinion | Congress has to thank the opposition for its Punjab fortunes
Issues
Being a border state, the Pulwama terror attack and the Balakot airstrikes are likely to play on voters’ mind.
The farm loan waiver issued by the Congress-led state government and the Kartarpur Corridor connecting Dera Baba Nanak shrine (India) and Kartarpur Gurdwara (Pakistan) are also expected to be key issues.
Also read: Opinion | Lok Sabha Polls: Amarinder Singh has the Congress safely placed in Punjab
Opinion polls
Opinion surveys conducted and released before the first phase of polling suggested that the Congress was likely to win nine to 12 seats, with the rest going to the NDA and AAP.
The surveys suggest that Punjab could be the only state in north India where the Congress has a lead over the BJP.
