The estimated acceptance ratio as per calculations turns out reasonable at 60 percent, which makes buyback attractive.
Rudra Shares & Stock Brokers
Quick Heal Technologies has approved buyback of 63,63,636 fully paid up equity shares of face value Rs 10 each representing up to 9.02 percent of the total paid up equity share capital. The buyback is fixed at a price of Rs 275 per equity share for an aggregate amount of up to Rs 175 crores via tender offer.
The record date for the said purpose is April 26, 2019. One will have to buy its shares up to April 24 to participate in the buyback as ex-date is fixed as April 25. Quick Heal is buying back its shares at a premium of 24 percent on the current price of Rs 222.
We have estimated entitlement ratio would be 36 percent-40 percent. However, real acceptance ratio should be higher around 40-50 percent as many shareholders do not take part in buyback. So, we have estimated the acceptance ratio to be around 55 percent-60 percent. We have estimated maximum tenure for completion as 2 months.
Buyback as a percent of equity shares is already high at 9.02 percent, above that, promoter shareholding in the company is also steep at 72.32 percent. Hence, the acceptance ratio could be 55-60 percent.
We advise that traders can buy 800 shares at CMP of Rs 222 in the open market and participate in the tender offer. Also, one has to monitor that shareholders holding value should be less than the amount of Rs 2 lakh as on the record date to qualify for this buyback.
As per SEBI regulations, 15 percent of the offer size will be reserved for retail shareholders (holding amount less than Rs 2 lakh). Therefore, Rs 26.25 crore (15 percent of Rs 175 crore) is set for retail investors.
The estimated acceptance ratio as per calculations turns out to be reasonable at 60 percent, which makes buyback attractive.
We are anticipating upside in Quick Heal as mid & smallcaps stocks have started to gain traction now.
As upside in Quick Heal is possibly quite high, the probability of high alpha is also expected. Hence, if the stock rises even by more than 10 percent, the expected return may turn out from 15 percent-18 percent.
Besides, in adverse case scenario, as there is a big political event lined up for the next month, if the stock moves in the opposite direction up to 20 percent, one may still get expected return to the levels of 5-7 percent.
Downside expectations being low, investors may go for buyback and the remaining quantity (not been accepted in buyback) may be sold in the open market.
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