If the BJP and Pilot succeed in breaking the allies and independents of the Congress or they themselves decide to break away from the Chief Minister, then the difference between the Gehlot camp and the BJP-backed Sachin Pilot Camp may be only 2-3 MLAs.
Going against the nature of Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot against his former deputy Sachin Pilot, it is not just due to the dislike or dislike of the pilot. According to Rajasthan Congress sources, Gehlot also defied the party high command from where he was getting advice on moderation. And this was due to fear more than frustration.
Currently the political situation in Rajasthan is changing rapidly and in such a situation the loyalty of MLAs is most important. But the immediate count on the back of the envelope shows that the number of MLAs giving definite support for Gehlot has fallen dangerously. If the BJP and Pilot succeed in breaking the allies and independents of the Congress or they themselves decide to break away from the Chief Minister, then the difference between the Gehlot camp and the BJP-backed Sachin Pilot Camp may be only 2-3 MLAs.
Before Pilot Walkout
- BJP + – Total 76
- BJP – 72
- RLP – 3
- Independents – 1
The Sachin Pilot Group has 19 Congress MLAs (the speaker has given notices to 19). In this way, together with BJP + and Pilot Group, a total of 95 MLAs against Gehlot stand together.
- BJP + and Pilot Group – Total 95
- BJP – 72
- RLP – 3
- Independents – 1
- Pilot Group-19
In this way 105 MLAs sit outside BJP + and Pilot group. The total strength of the house is 200.
Gehlot camp statistics
The Gehlot camp claims that it has the support of 107 MLAs after the departure of Pilot Group’s 19 MLAs. it’s not possible. Because right now there are only 105 MLAs outside BJP + and Pilot group.
Even this data cannot be a definite figure. Let’s calculate. Gehlot had the support of 124 MLAs before Pilot’s rebellion.
- Gehlot + Total 124
- Congress – 107
- BTP-2
- CPM-2
- RLD – 1
- Independents – 12
With the support of 19 MLAs under Pilot’s leadership, Gehlot Camp’s figure came down to 105. At the same time, there are 95 MLAs including BJP + and Pilot Group.
Out of 105 MLAs of Gehlot Camp, the speaker of the state assembly cannot vote unless there is a tie during the vote or floor test. This brings the figure to 104.
Master Bhanwar Lal, a Congress MLA from Sujangarh in Churu region, who is the Minister of Social Justice in the cabinet, is admitted at Medanta Hospital in Gurugram and is suffering from a serious medical condition. He is currently not in a position to participate in the floor test. With this, the strength of Gehlot Camp comes down to 103 MLAs.
Weakness of Gehlot’s figures
If this number is 103 (Gehlot Camp) vs 95 (BJP + and Pilot Group) then Gehlot will be crossed even if the speaker and a sick MLA do not vote in the floor test.
But this is where Gehlot’s number can get in trouble. BJP and Sachin Pilot Camp have an eye on independents and Gehlot’s allies who are victims of factionalism.
CPM concerns
The Communist Party of India (Marxist) has 2 MLAs in the Assembly – Balwant Poonia and Girdhari Mehariya.
There is already a question mark over Poonia’s loyalty. On June 22, the Rajasthan unit of the CPM had to suspend Poonia from the party for a year for disobeying the party’s directives in the recent Rajya Sabha elections in the state.
Fearing a split in its assembly unit in Rajasthan, the left party on Tuesday issued a statement through its state secretary and former MLA Amarlal. It said that his party is neither with the Congress nor with the BJP.
If 1 out of 2 CPM MLAs becomes absent or doubtful, then Ashok Gehlot’s assured vote will be reduced to 102.
BTP Stance
The Tribal Party of India (BTP) with two MLAs was supporting Gehlot. But a few days ago a video of an MLA from this party went viral in which the MLA told how the state police had snatched his keys and forced him to remain closed. The party also issued a statement that it wants to maintain equal distance from both Congress and BJP.
If we add two more MLAs to the suspect list, the number of sure votes with the Gehlot camp is 100.
Independents
The next deciding factor can be independents. First, the independent parties keep an eye on the independents to change the frost in the assemblies and the Parliament.
The pilot group claims that 2 more out of the total 13 independents have supported it. Whereas Gehlot Camp rejects this claim. If 2 independent MLAs are removed, then the number of Gehlot Camps will come down to 98 and the number of BJP + and Pilot Group will increase to 97.
And Gehlot would like to avoid the 98 vs 97 MLA contest because BJP has shown more mastery in winning such close fight in the past.
Gehlot’s other concerns
There are a lot of factors involved in this calculation but it only indicates the reasons for the fragility of data and Gehlot’s concern.
Gehlot is a wise politician and will definitely create problems for BJP. But his concerns are further compounded by the fact that out of 98 MLAs with him, 6 were previously in the BSP and joined the Congress after winning the elections. His move angered the BSP supremo and he accused the Congress of stabbing him in the back as an ally.
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Interestingly, Gehlot now has only 82 people from the original Congress family. This increases the dependence of the Gehlot government on 2 of BTP, 2 of CPM and independent MLAs.
In this way, Gehlot’s edge in the Assembly is so slim that if BJP + and Pilot Camp succeeded in wooing some more Congress MLAs or absent in the case of trust vote, then Gehlot will be in serious trouble.
The current political situation in Rajasthan seems fertile for horse-trading. Loyalty will depend on who offers a better deal.
Anti gehlot camp statistics
The BJP has a strong block of 72 MLAs in the Rajasthan Legislative Assembly. It has the committed support of three National Democratic Party MLAs and 1 Independent. There were a total of 76 MLAs with the BJP before Pilot’s walkout.
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