While the Valley youth are expectedly getting more restive, it will take some more time for the shell-shocked Kashmiris to make sense of what is happening, especially in the backdrop of total blackout
Chinar trees (locally called ‘buen’) dot Kashmir’s towns and the lovely countryside. With the onset of every autumn, the leaves change hues to assume different shades of red before they start shedding. Much more than before perhaps, this autumn’s red Chinar leaves may veritably be more symbolic of the disturbances and violence that authorities apprehend may break out over the constitutional changes, taking away of statehood and partition of the erstwhile state announced by the Centre on Monday. With Pakistan being more than a willing contributor.
It is with that apprehension in mind that a huge presence of security forces has been arranged providing one of the heaviest security blankets ever in recent times with one security personnel for roughly about 30 Kashmiris in the Valley, women and children included. Back-of-the-envelope calculations show about 2,70,000 uniformed men in the Valley to the Valley’s estimated population of about 83 lakh.
While the Valley youth are expectedly getting more restive, it will take some more time for the shell-shocked Kashmiris to make sense of what is happening, especially in the backdrop of total blackout be it of the media, internet or mobile telephony.
Meanwhile, Pakistan has come out with its stock response to the ‘T’. Pakistan military chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa said on Tuesday that his army will go to “any extent to fulfill our obligations” on the Kashmir issue.
On Wednesday, Pak PM Imran Khan downgraded diplomatic relations with India, meaning no high commissioner level interaction any more (deputy high commissioners will take their place), announced a review of bilateral agreements and closed trade ties. It also said it will approach international forums against India’s decisions on Kashmir.
Agreeing that there is a strong possibility of a spike in terrorist and Pakistani-sponsored violence in India—in Kashmir and elsewhere in India—two of India’s most experienced Pakistan watchers agree that the next couple of months indicate hard times ahead.
Satish Chandra, a seasoned diplomat who was the Indian high commissioner to Pakistan (1995-1998) says: “Pakistan is very transparent when it says it will do everything possible on Kashmir. Which means infiltration, support and sponsoring of militancy will increase. In the coming days, there will be every effort to lift the level of terror activity in Kashmir. And it is very good that our government took knew about it beforehand and sent troops to the Valley.”
How long will it sustain?
“Initially there is good possibility of violence in the Valley. But it will settle down. Once it is realized that the government won’t treat the violators with kid gloves, they will come to heel,” says the former diplomat who also headed the National Security Council Secretariat and was also the Deputy National Security Advisor.
Explaining that the huge frustration in Pakistan now will lead to desperate moves, G Parthasarathy, former high commissioner to Pakistan (1998-2000) says: “At the moment there is a lot of frustration in Pakistan due to India’s sudden action and with the international Financial Action Task Force (FATF) breathing down its neck. It will lead to stepping up of their anti-Indian terrorist activity. Pakistan will try to push in more terrorists and coax others to join the effort. Propaganda targeting the Kashmiris will be unleashed to the biggest extent possible.”
“And what is new in downgrading of diplomatic status? It has happened before. Also how can you talk and hold negotiations when your high commissioners are expelled?”
Underlining that Pakistan has to stop anti-India terror, the former PMO and foreign ministry spokesperson says: “We have always stated our readiness for talks provided Pakistan stop sponsoring and supporting terrorist which it won’t.”
The red Chinar leaves of autumn fall with the onset of winter. Will the angst abate with the winter cold will be anyone’s guess.
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