NCDEX Apr Soybean surged for third consecutive session on Wednesday supported by short covering from market participants. Sufficient supplies and slow meal demand is bearish for soybean but improving demand for crushing and meal exports supporting prices. In its latest press release by SOPA, soybean arrivals for the Oct-Feb period in the current crop year pegged at 73 lakh tonnes (lt), up by 24.9% on year. As per SEA, soy meal exports in February provisionally reported at 69,428 tonnes, down 6% on year compared to 73,800 tonnes. Moreover, January exports are revised lower to 86,300 tonnes from over 2.1 lt reported in the last month release. In the second advance estimates for 2018-19, govt pegged 2018-19 production at 136.9 lt, up 24.7% on year. However, SOPA expects availably of soybean for crushing, direct use and exports in 2018/19 to be about 102 lt as against 86 lt last year.
Outlook
Soybean futures expected to trade sideways to higher as El Nino gain strength, which may affect monsoon. However, higher availability may further pressurize prices at higher levels.
